A Guide to Understanding Global Temperature Data by Roy W. Spencer, Ph.D.


INTRODUCTION

 

When we measure temperature in our backyard, we really aren’t that concerned if the thermometer we use is off by a degree or two. Since most people live where the temperature fluctuates by many degrees every day, and the seasonal swing in temperatures can be 80 F or more, a couple of degrees doesn’t matter too much.
But in the case of global warming, one or two degrees is the entire change scientists are trying to measure over a period of 50 to 100 years. Since none of our temperature monitoring systems was designed to measure such a small change over such a long period of time, there is much disagreement over exactly how much warming has or will occur.
Whether we use thermometers, weather balloons, or Earth-orbiting satellites, the measurements must be adjusted for known sources of error. This is difficult if not impossible to do accurately. As a result, different scientists come up with different global warming trends—or no warming trend at all.
So, it should come as no surprise that the science of global warming is not quite as certain as the media and politicians make it out to be.
Increasingly, the “science” of global warming is being based upon theories of what might happen, not on what is being observed to happen. And the observations are increasingly at odds with the theory. The United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) relies upon theoretical climate models which predict about 2 C (3.8 F) of warming by the end of this century, due primarily to carbon dioxide emissions resulting from our burning of fossil fuels. The IPCC claims that this rate of warming could be catastrophic for some forms of life.
But is the Earth really warming as rapidly as the IPCC says? And, is that warming entirely the fault of humans?
In this paper I will answer some basic questions about global temperature data in particular, climate change in general, and what it all means for the debate over energy policy. The following questions are some of the more frequently ones asked of me over the last 20 years I have been performing climate change research under U.S. government funding.
These questions include:
1) Does an increasing CO2 level mean there will be higher global temperatures?
2) Can global temperatures go up naturally, even without rising CO2 levels?
3) How are temperature data adjusted?
4) Are global temperatures really going up? If so, by how much?
5) Is warming enough to be concerned about? Is warming necessarily a bad thing?
6) Could the warming be both natural and human-caused?
7) Why would the climate models produce too much warming?
8) What is climate sensitivity?
9) Don’t 97 percent of climate researchers agree that global warming is a serious
man-made problem?
10) Haven’t ocean temperatures been going up, too?
11) What does it mean when we hear “the highest temperature on record”?
12) Is there a difference between weather and climate?
13) Why would climate science be biased? Isn’t global warming research
immune from politics?
From the answers to these questions that follow it should be clear that the science of global warming is far from settled.
Uncertainties in the adjustments to our global temperature datasets, the small amount of warming those datasets have measured compared to what climate models expect, and uncertainties over the possible role of Mother Nature in recent warming, all combine to make climate change beliefs as much faith-based as science-based.
Until climate science is funded independent of desired energy policy outcomes, we can continue to expect climate research results to be heavily biased in the direction of catastrophic outcomes.

NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT

By Paul Homewood

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FFP-Global-Temperature-booklet-July-2016-PDF-1

I mentioned earlier the new paper just published by Roy Spencer.

It is only 12 pages long, and is well worth reading. I have though put together below a couple of key sections:

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More evidence that male and female brains are wired differently

More evidence that male and female brains are wired differently

While measuring brain activity with magnetic resonance imaging during blood pressure trials, UCLA researchers found that men and women had opposite responses in the right front of the insular cortex, a part of the brain integral to the experience of emotions, blood pressure control and self-awareness.

The insular cortex has five main parts called gyri serving different roles. The researchers found that the blood pressure response in the front right gyrus showed an opposite pattern in men and women, with men showing a greater right-sided activation in the area while the women showed a lower response.

“This is such a critical brain area and we hadn’t expected to find such strong differences between men and women’s brains,” said Paul Macey, the study’s lead author. “This region, the front-right insula, is involved with stress and keeping heart rate and blood pressure high. It’s possible the women had already activated this region because of psychological stress, so that when they did the physical test in the study, the brain region could not activate any more. However, it’s also possible that this region is wired differently in men and women.”

“We have always thought that the ‘normal’ pattern was for this right-front insula region to activate more than other areas, during a task that raises blood pressure,” added Macey. “However, since most earlier studies were in men or male animals, it looks like this ‘normal’ response was only in men. The healthy response in women seems to be a lower right-sided activation.”

Source

ESTIMATES OF COMPARATIVE COSTS FOR WEATHER DEPENDENT RENEWABLES IN EUROPE

ESTIMATES OF COMPARATIVE COSTS FOR WEATHER DEPENDENT RENEWABLES IN EUROPE

This article is concerned with the two main forms of weather dependent Renewable Energy, Wind Power, (Onshore and Offshore) and Photovoltaic solar power.  In the UK this amounts to ~75% of all Renewable Energy as installed.  The other Renewable Energy  inputs are traditional Hydro power ~8% and the remainder are other sources such as biomass, waste and landfill gas amounting to ~17%:  they are not considered here.

This article sets out a plausible model to assess the costs commitments made to introduce weather dependent Renewable Energy in Europe.  The numbers that result are very significant indeed .  The populace of Europe were never consulted as to whether they wished to commit such vast sums to the Green cause of controlling CO2 as a greenhouse gas in a futile attempt to limit further temperature rise due to greenhouse warming.

  • The installation of the weather dependent Renewables fleet in Europe, as of 2015, has already lead to a 60 year lifetime financial commitment amounting to roughly €3.4trillion:  this approximates to the annual GDP of Germany.
  • Electricity generation by using gas-fired installations is significantly cheaper than weather dependent Renewables in terms of both initial installation Capital cost and later Operation and Maintenance costs, even when accounting for the current costs of fuel.
  • The € 0.72 trillion capital costs already spent on weather dependent Renewables in Europe to date would have been sufficient to re-equip the 1,000 Gigawatt European electricity generating fleet with Gas-fired power stations in large part:  producing electricity for the grid consistently, as and when needed at ~90% capacity.
  • The European weather dependent Renewable fleet with a nominal nameplate output of ~236 Gigawatts only contributes ~ 42Gigawatts to the European Grid, a capacity percentage at about 19% overall.
  • 60 year life-time costs of Onshore wind power range from 5 times more expensive than Gas-fired generation.
  • 60 year life-time costs of Offshore wind power and Solar power are about 20 times more expensive than Gas-fired generation.
  • during the 60 year life-time Gas-fired generators have a full-time productive capacity of about ~90%,  whereas the combined capacity figures for weather dependent Renewable Energy of only about 19% is achieved across all European weather dependent Renewable installations.
  • if full fossil fuel back-up has to be provided to maintain the viability of the electricity network, the entire need for the weather dependent Renewables in the first place is obviated.

Source

Germany’s energiewende meets reality head-on

Germany’s energiewende meets reality head-on

A leaked environment ministry document suggests that Germany will not go ahead with a coal-fired power phase-out.

A similar draft document released earlier this year had proposed phase-out of coal-fired power production well before 2050. However the latest paper sees the proposal dropped as well as the scrapping of several C02 emissions reduction goals for individual sectors.
Bundestag
The new version deleted specific concrete C02 emissions savings targets for the energy, industry, transport and agriculture sectors, according to Reuters.

The document forms the German government’s national climate action plan for 2050 and lays out how it plans to move away from fossil fuels and achieve its goal of cutting CO2 emissions by up to 95 percent compared to 1990 levels by the middle of the century.

Also included in the earlier paper was a paragraph suggesting Germany would consider lobbying for the introduction of a minimum price on European carbon-dioxide emissions. But this has also been removed from the latest document.

The draft is due to be debated by the cabinet in September.

Source

The Gender fluid Cult

The Gender fluid Cult

Once upon a time life was simple. We had to fight for survival, had only time for hunting/gathering and procreation. Very simple, a female coupled with a male and got as a result offspring.

For as yet not completely understood reasons ( best theory for beta males not to be attacked by alpha males) bi/homosexuality became a survival trait and the trait withstood evolution.

Nowadays we are free from the fight for survival in some nations, too much free time on our hands so a new generation has been generated which overestimate their own importance. Searching for grounds to support their entitlement there is group that tries to justify their ‘uniqueness’ by building on the simple principle of 2 genders that procreate to keep the species from going extinct to some inexplicable notion that genders don’t exist but that there is a spectrum of genders.

Obviously this has to be added to the upcoming redaction of the DSM since it has no basis in reality but a lot in abnormal psychology. Can be put somewhere with personality disorder.

That the person in question imagines they are in a gender spectrum doesn’t mean such a spectrum actually exists. And by the intense media attention given many an impressionable person will easily be convinced that he/she/it also has this disorder.

 

Tesla’s Incredible Shrinking Powerwall Warranty


NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT

By Paul Homewood

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http://investorintel.com/cleantech-intel/tesla-energys-incredible-shrinking-powerwall-warranty/

It appears that Tesla have been quietly making their Powerwall warranty pretty worthless.

John Peterson, a lawyer and expert on energy and sustainability issues, writes in Investor Intel:

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China: Wind turbines aren’t working, causing HUGE problems 


A single gigawatt of electricity is enough to power 700,000 homes. Government statistics show that 33.9 billion kilowatt-hours of wind-power, or about 15 percent of all Chinese wind power, was wasted in 2015 alone.

Tallbloke's Talkshop

Chinese wind power [image credit: clearwinds.co.uk] Chinese wind power [image credit: clearwinds.co.uk]
Even if the turbines themselves are in working order, unreliable intermittent wind power remote from the areas of densest population can cause havoc to China’s power grid system, as Andrew Follett reports in the Daily Caller.

The government stopped approving new wind power projects in the country’s windiest regions in early March, according to China’s National Energy Administration statement. These regions previously installed nearly 71 gigawatts of wind turbines, more than the rest of China combined.

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